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My 2016 Academy Award Nomination Predictions

  • OmahaTrevor85
    • 121 posts
    January 22, 2017 6:43 PM EST

    It never fails. With each Oscar season comes my set of predictions. Yep, even after 15 years, I’m still going strong. So with Tuesday being the day of nominations, I decided to have a go at predicting the nominees. Once again, I predict the five, or whatever appropriate number, that I most believe will be nominated. Some categories may have an additional dark horse (DH) prediction or two for potential upsetters to my main picks as well as a possible For Your Consideration (FYC) pick for efforts that most deserve the nomination but have lousy chances. So here are my predictions:

     

    BEST PICTURE

    -Arrival

    -Fences

    -Hacksaw Ridge

    -Hell Or High Water

    -Hidden Figures

    -La La Land

    -Lion

    -Manchester By The Sea

    -Moonlight

    -Sully

    DH1: Loving

    DH2: Deadpool

    DH3: Elle

    FYC: Silence

     

    There most likely won’t be ten Best Picture nominees but I decided to predict ten in case. Who would’ve thought that Deadpool would have a chance for Best Picture? After it received a Producers Guild nomination, it is a possibility.

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    -DAMIEN CHAZELLE/La La Land

    -MEL GIBSON/Hacksaw Ridge

    -BARRY JENKINS/Moonlight

    -KENNETH LONERGAN/Manchester By The Sea

    -DENIS VILLENEUVE/Arrival

    DH1: GARTH DAVIS/Lion

    DH2: DENZEL WASHINGTON/Fences

    FYC: MARTIN SCORSESE/Silence

     

    Remember the big #OscarsSoWhite controversy that’s been happening for the past two years? This year it looks like a lot more minorities have better chances at getting nominated. In fact this year could be the first year two black directors—Denzel Washington and Barry Jenkins—get nominated.

     

    BEST ACTOR

    -CASEY AFFLECK/Manchester By The Sea

    -ANDREW GARFIELD/Hacksaw Ridge

    -RYAN GOSLING/La La Land

    -VIGGO MORTENSON/Captain Fantastic

    - DENZEL WASHINGTON/Fences

    DH1: TOM HANKS/Sully

    DH2: JOEL EDGERTON/Loving

     

    It should come as no surprise that Ryan Gosling is the only former mouseketeer to ever be nominated for an Oscar: in 2006 for Half Nelson.

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    -AMY ADAMS/Arrival

    -ISABELLE HUPPERT/Elle

    -NATALIE PORTMAN/Jackie

    -EMMA STONE/La La Land

    -MERYL STREEP/Florence Foster Jenkins

    DH1: EMILY BLUNT/The Girl On The Train

    DH2: RUTH NEGGA/Loving

    FYC: ANNETTE BENING/20th Century Women

     

    Is there any stopping Meryl Streep? She looks poised to earn nomination #20.

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    -MAHERSHALA ALI/Moonlight

    -JEFF BRIDGES/Hell Or High Water

    -HUGH GRANT/Florence Foster Jenkins

    -DEV PATEL/Lion

    -AARON TAYLOR-JOHNSON/Nocturnal Animals

    DH1: LUCAS HEDGES/Manchester By The Sea

    DH2: MICHAEL SHANNON/Nocturnal Animals

    FYC: ISSEI OGATA/Silence

     

    One of the problems about the recent #OscarsSoWhite row is that it made the race issue look like it’s only between black and white. It’s other races too. In fact Dev Patel looks poised to be the first Asian actor in ten years to be nominated and the first actor of South Asian descent since Ben Kingsley.

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    -VIOLA DAVIS/Fences

    -NAOMIE HARRIS/Moonlight

    -NICOLE KIDMAN/Lion

    -OCTAVIA SPENCER/Hidden Figures

    -MICHELLE WILLIAMS/Manchester By The Sea

    DH1: JANELLE MONAE/Hidden Figures

    DH2: GRETA GERWIG/20th Century Women

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    -DAMIEN CHAZELLE/La La Land

    -BARRY JENKINS and TERELL ALVIN McCRANEY/Moonlight

    -KENNETH LONERGAN/Manchester By The Sea

    -JEFF NICHOLS/Loving

    -TAYLOR SHERIDAN/Hell Or High Water

    DH1: PAUL LAVERTY/I, Daniel Blake

    DH2: MIKE MILLS/20th Century Women

    FYC: YORGOS LANTHIMOS and EFYHIMIS FILIPOU/The Lobster

     

    Each year it’s an interesting look to see which year’s scripts had the most muscle? Original or Adapted? This year looks like it’s the Originals’ year.

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    -LUKE DAVIES/Lion

    -TOM FORD/Nocturnal Animals

    -ERIC HEISSERER/Arrival

    -ALLISON SCHROEDER and THEODORE MELFI/Hidden Figures

    -AUGUST WILSON/Fences

    DH1: JAY COCKS and MARTIN SCORSESE/Silence

    DH2: TODD KOMARNICKI/Sully

    FYC: RHETT REESE and TOM WERNICK/Deadpool

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    -Kubo And The Two Strings

    -Moana

    -My Life As a Zucchini

    -The Red Turtle

    -Zootopia

    DH1: Finding Dory

    DH2: Miss Hokusai

     

    This category has often been the case where movies that were sure shots for nominations-- The Peanuts Movie last year and The Lego Movie the year before – were actually snubbed in favor of independent fare. We’ll see what big favs get snubbed out this year.

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    -GREG FRASER/Lion

    -JAMES LAXTON/Moonlight

    -SEAMUS McGARVEY/Nocturnal Animals

    -LINUS SANDGREN/La La Land

    -BRADFORD YOUNG/Arrival

    DH: RODRIGO PRIETO/Silence

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    - COLLEEN ATWOOD/Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them

    -MARION BOYCE and MARGOT WILSON/The Dressmaker

    -CONSOLATA BOYLE/Florence Foster Jenkins

    -MADELINE FONTAINE/Jackie

    -MARY ZOPHRES/La La Land

    DH1: MARY ZOPHRES/Hail Caesar!

    DH2: EIMER NI MHAOLDOMHNAIGH/Love & Friendship

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    -The Eagle Huntress

    -Life, Animated

    -OJ: Made In America

    -13th

    -Tower

    DH: Weiner

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    -TOM CROSS/La La Land

    -JOHN GILBERT/Hacksaw Ridge

    -JENNIFER LAME/Manchester By The Sea

    -NAT SANDERS and JOI McMILLON/Moonlight

    -JOE WALKER/Arrival

    DH1: JAKE ROBERTS/Hell Or High Water

    DH2: JULIAN CLARKE/Deadpool

     

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

    - It's Only The End Of The World (Canada)

    -A Man Called Ove (Sweden)

    -The Salesman (Iran)

    -Tanna (Australia)

    -Toni Erdmann (Germany)

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    -NICHOLAS BRITWELL/Moonlight

    -JUSTIN HURWITZ/La La Land

    -JOHANN JOHANSON/Arrival

    - DUSTIN O'HALLORAN and HAUSCHKA/Lion

    -JOHN WILLIAMS/The BFG

    DH1: HANS ZIMMER, PHARREL WILLIAMS and BENJAMIN WALFISCH/Hidden Figures

    DH2: ABEL KORZENIOWSKI/Nocturnal Animals

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    -‘Can’t Stop The Feeling’/Trolls

    -‘City Of Stars’/La La Land

    -‘Heathens’/Suicide Squad

    -‘How Far I’ll Go’/Moana

    -‘Try Everything’/Zootopia

    DH1: ‘Faith’/Sing

    DH2: ‘Just Like Fire’/Alice Through Looking Glass

    FYC: 'The Great Beyond'/Sausage Party

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    - Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them

    - Hail Caesar!

    -Jackie

    -Hacksaw Ridge

    -La La Land

    DH1: Arrival

    DH2: Rogue One

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    -Captain America: Civil War

    -Doctor Strange

    -Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them

    -The Jungle Book

    -Rogue One

    DH: Arrival

     

    And there you go. My predictions for this year’s Oscar nominees. Of course I won’t predict for every category, like the short movies. Just the main ones and the technical ones I know best. We’ll see how I did Tuesday morning.


    This post was edited by OmahaTrevor85 at January 31, 2017 1:52 AM EST
  • Calendar Girl
    • 4 posts
    January 22, 2017 7:23 PM EST

    Finding Dory better be nominated.

  • JoeyL_Roxxs
    • 3 posts
    January 22, 2017 9:59 PM EST

    What about A Monster Calls for best pic, you don;t think it even has a chance for a nomination?

  • $NavyBoy$
    • 49 posts
    January 23, 2017 12:54 AM EST

    Hacksaw Ridhe was just excellent as was Hell Or High Water. I say both are nominated and one wins it.

  • Summer
    • 13 posts
    January 23, 2017 1:08 AM EST

    Your predictions are always a welcome sight, I wonder do you watch all these movies?

  • Leandro
    • 7 posts
    January 23, 2017 4:31 PM EST

    Hacksaw Ridge best Pic.

    Mel Gibson best director

    Andrew Garfield best actor.

  • Lukas
    • 33 posts
    January 23, 2017 4:45 PM EST

    Lewis MacDougall for a nomination, come on make it so.

  • PowderPuffGirl
    • 3 posts
    January 24, 2017 5:17 PM EST

    I am OUTRAGED over the snub of "Finding Dory."

  • Jeffrey007
    • 43 posts
    January 24, 2017 11:48 PM EST

    Absolutely shocked over the snubs of Martin Scorsese, Deadpool and Annette benning.

  • MariaD
    • 17 posts
    January 26, 2017 4:57 PM EST

    No Finding Dory, Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

  • JeffOBrien
    • 11 posts
    January 27, 2017 2:55 PM EST

    Stunned by the snub to Finding Dory and Martin Scorsese.

  • Colton
    • 6 posts
    January 28, 2017 12:15 PM EST

    @OmahaTrevor85 I would like to know what was the most surprising snubb for you out of the nominations.

    Your opinion is important as you seem to know your stuff.

  • OmahaTrevor85
    • 121 posts
    February 2, 2017 8:21 PM EST

    I was surprised of the snubs of Amy Adams and Hugh Grant. Finding Dory was also a surprise too.

    Colton said:

    @OmahaTrevor85 I would like to know what was the most surprising snubb for you out of the nominations.

    Your opinion is important as you seem to know your stuff.