My 2016 Academy Award Predictions
Okay, Sunday’s Oscar night. That means you all get my annual predictions. It’s a TSO tradition going back 15 years ago. Once again I give you my Should Win (SW) pick, my Will Win (WW) pick and my Closest Threat (CT) pick. So here goes:
BEST PICTURE :
WW: La La Land
SW & CT: Moonlight
La La Land looks poised to be the first musical since 2002’s Chicago to win Best Picture. Also the first Best Picture winner to gross $100 million since 2012’s Argo. What is up with the Academy nowadays?
WW: DAMIEN CHAZELLE/La La Land
SW & CT: BARRY JENKINS/Moonlight
It’s the year of La La Land. Admit it. People love musicals. And Chazelle delivered a completely original one for the big screen.
SW & WW: DENZEL WASHINGTON/Fences
CT: CASEY AFFLECK/Manchester By The Sea
Normally the Academy is reluctant to give an actor or actress a third Oscar. However Denzel is the one to do it by bringing Troy Maxson to the big screen, and in a big way.
WW: EMMA STONE/La La Land
SW & CT: ISABELLE HUPPERT/Elle
It’s usually the acting performances that have the best chances of winning Oscars. Emma delivered.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
SW & WW: MAHERSHALA ALI/Moonlight
CT: DEV PATEL/Lion
Remember how for the past two years there was the #OscarsSoWhite row? This year there are seven non-white actors nominated. Mahershala Ali is anticipated to win for playing a gangsta with a smooth style and a wise head.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
SW & WW: VIOLA DAVIS/Fences
CT: OCTAVIA SPENCER/Hidden Figures
If anyone can steal Fences from Denzel, it’s Viola!
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
SW: TAYLOR SHERIDAN/Hell Of High Water
WW: KENNETH LONERGAN/Manchester By The Sea
CT: DAMIEN CHAZELLE/La La Land
If there’s one category Manchester By The Sea still has its best chances at, it’s this.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
SW & WW: BARRY JENKINS and TARELL ALVIN McCRANEY/Moonlight
CT: ERIC HEISSERER/Arrival
Isn’t it weird that Moonlight has won a lot of Original Screenplay awards? The fact it’s based off a short story is why the Academy classifies it as Adapted.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
SW & CT: Kubo And The Two Strings
2016 was a remarkable year for animated movies. So many of them and they entertained best. That may explain why favorites like Finding Dory and The Secret Life Of Pets got snubbed. Just too much competition.
Disney has won this category ten out of fifteen times. No question this is the Oscar they most want to win. Zootopia is just what they need to win it.
BEST ART DIRECTION:
WW: La La Land
CT: Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
SW & WW: GREIG FRASER/Lion
CT: LINUS SANDGREN/La La Land
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
WW: MARY ZOPHRES/La La Land
CT: MADELINE FONTAINE/Jackie
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
WW: O.J.: Made In America
BEST FILM EDITING:
WW: TOM CROSS/La La Land
CT: JOHN GILBERT/Hacksaw Ridge
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
WW: Toni Erdmann (Germany)
CT: The Salesman (Iran)
Iranian director Asghar Farhadi won five years ago for A Separation. However he will boycott the Oscars in protest of Trump’s immigration policies.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
WW: Suicide Squad
CT: A Man Called Ove
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
SW & WW: JUSTIN HURWITZ/La La Land
CT: NICHOLAS BRITTELL/Moonlight
A score to an original musical is a foregone conclusion.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
SW: ‘Audition (The Fools Who Dream)’/La La Land
WW: ‘City Of Stars’/La La Land
CT: ‘Can’t Stop The Feeling!’/Trolls
BEST SOUND MIXING:
WW: Hacksaw Ridge
CT: La La Land
BEST SOUND EDITING:
WW: Hacksaw Ridge
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
WW: The Jungle Book
SW & CT: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
We all know Star Wars delivers the best visual effects of the year. Problem is that’s the expectation for every Star Wars movie. That explains why Ex Machina won last year; because their visual effects did not have the expectations Star Wars gets each time. That also explains why The Jungle Book has the edge this year.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM:
WW: Silent Nights
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
WW: Joe’s Violin
And there you go. My predictions for tomorrow’s Academy Awards. This will be the first time Jimmy Kimmel is hosting. Will he do a good job or will he mess up? We’ll see.