My 2017 Academy Award Predictions
Once again it’s time for me to predict the winners of the Academy Awards. Before I do, I want to make a preliminary prediction. I predict they will get all their envelopes right. Those two ‘envelope guards’ from last year were sacked so two new people are coming. Also I predict Jimmy Kimmel will be entertaining again as host. Makes good sense to have someone who hosts a late night show host the Oscars.
Anyways without further ado, here are my predictions for this year’s Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE:
Should Win & Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Closest Threat: The Shape Of Water
This is a tough one. The race is between Three Billboards and The Shape Of Water. Shape of Water won the Producers Guild, but Three Billboards has the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice and the BAFTA. However the director of The Shape Of Water is favored to win while the director of Three Billboards didn’t even get nominated. How did that happen? I have to go with Three Billboards. It’s even possible Get Out could pull a shocker. You never know.
BEST DIRECTOR:
SW & WW: GUILLERMO DEL TORO/The Shape Of Water
CT: JORDAN PEELE/Get Out
Remember Pan’s Labyrinth from over ten years ago? I’ve been waiting for the longest time for Del Toro to get Oscar acclaim as a director and finally he has the chance. If he wins, this will make it four times in the last five years a Mexican director won Best Director.
BEST ACTOR:
SW & WW: GARY OLDMAN/Darkest Hour
CT: TIMOTHEE CHALAMET/Call Me By Your Name
Last year was the first year since 1997 which all four acting Oscars went to performances of fictional characters. This year, I anticipate two of them to go to performances of people who existed or exist. Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill is one of them.
BEST ACTRESS:
SW & WW: FRANCES McDORMAND/ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
CT: SAOIRSE RONAN/Lady Bird
Funny how those of us around the early years of TSO thought the young actor at the time with the best chances of making the transition to adult actor was Haley Osment. Instead it ended up being Saoirse Ronan.
The last time an actress won this award for the second time was just six years ago: Meryl Streep. I still remember Frances McDormand’s first Best Actress winning performance in Fargo. Yah! She deserves it again here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
SW & WW: SAM ROCKWELL/ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
CT: WILLEM DAFOE/The Florida Project
Many people have complained that the acting categories this year are too predictable. All expected to win have won the GG, SAG and BAFTA award. Maybe next year will spice things up. In the meantime, Sam’s a deserving winner here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
SW & WW: ALLISON JANNEY/I, Tonya
CT: LAURIE METCALF/Lady Bird
After years of small supporting movie performances that catch your eye, Allison Janney gets a break with a role that no only gives her due credit, but even steals the show from Morgot Robbie as Tonya!
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
SW & WW: JORDAN PEELE/Get Out
CT: MARTIN McDONAGH/ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I know the Academy usually has an aversion to horror films, but the script of Get Out is worthy of the win.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
SW & WW: JAMES IVORY/Call Me By Your Name
CT: AARON SORKIN/Molly’s Game
Last year, it was Moonlight that was the gay film with the biggest impact on the Oscars. This year it’s Call Me By Your Name: A romance set around the charming coasts of Italy. And apricots.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
SW & WW: CoCo
CT: Loving Vincent
While 2017 wasn’t as good a year in animated films as 2016, it did feature an autumn surge of great films like CoCo, Ferdinand and Loving Vincent. I anticipate CoCo to take it. Once again a win for Disney in this category.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
SW & WW: ROGER DEAKINS/Blade Runner 2049
CT: DAN LAUSTSEN/The Shape Of Water
To think this is Roger Deakins’s thirteenth nomination starting way back with The Shawshank Redemption and he’s never won. Looks like this is finally his year!
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
WW: MARK BRIDGES/Phantom Thread
CT: LUIS SEQUEIRA/The Shape Of Water
Well, Phantom Thread is about a high-status fashion designer, right?
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
WW: Faces Places
CT: Icarus
BEST FILM EDITING:
WW: LEE SMITH/Dunkirk
CT: PAUL MACHLISS and JONATHAN AMOS/Baby Driver
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
WW: A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
CT: The Square (Sweden)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
WW: Darkest Hour
CT: Wonder
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
SW & WW: ALEXANDRE DESPLAT/The Shape Of Water
CT: HANS ZIMMER/Dunkirk
What’s your guess that Alexandre Desplat will dethrone John Williams as film’s top composer anytime soon?
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
WW: ‘This Is Me’/The Greatest Showman
SW & CT: ‘Remember Me’/CoCo
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
WW: The Shape Of Water
SW & CT: Dunkirk
BEST SOUND MIXING:
WW: Dunkirk
CT: Baby Driver
BEST SOUND EDITING:
WW: Dunkirk
CT: Blade Runner 2049
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
WW: Blade Runner 2049
CT: War For The Planet Of The Apes
Trivia Fact: The last time a Star Wars movie won an Oscar was back in 1983 for Return Of The Jedi. Actually it was an honorary Oscar to the visual effects team.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM:
WW: DeKalb Elementary
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
WW: Dear Basketball
Interesting how before the Oscar nominations were announced, the short with the best chances of getting nominated according to oddsmakers was In A Heartbeat: the boy-meets-boy story that went viral on YouTube back in August. Its snub really hit fans hard. Looks like it’s Kobe’s for the taking.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
WW: Heaven Is A Traffic Jam On The 405
BONUS SECTION: WHAT IF TSO PICKED THE OSCARS?
I’d like to thank you all for voting in the polls I created. Now here are our picks:
- Best Picture – Get Out
- Best Director – CHRISTOPHER NOLAN/Dunkirk
- Best Actor – three-way tie: Daniel Kaluuya, Gary Oldman and Denzel Washington
- Best Actress - SAOIRSE RONAN/ Lady Bird
- Best Supporting Actor – tie: Willem Dafoe and Richard Jenkins
- Best Supporting Actress - LAURIE METCALF/ Lady Bird
- Best Animated Feature – Ferdinand
- Best Visual Effects - Star Wars: The Last Jedi
And there you have it. My predictions and the faves of TSO. Oscars to be revealed Sunday night. Let’s hope they have the envelopes all right this time!