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  • Topic: My Oscar Win Predictions

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    • February 23, 2013 12:38 PM EST
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      Can you believe this is the thirteenth year I've seen all the Best Picture nominees? Man, this is the best reason to want the number of Best Picture nominees to go back to five: it was a lot easier to see them all back then. This year I've seen enough movies and shorts to make up 93 of this year's 122 nominations. Makes you wonder how many nominations most Academy members watched this year. I could always hope to be a member at large.
       
      Anyways it's that time of year for me to make my predictions. Those of you who know the drill will know that for most categories, I will give a Should Win (SW) pick. For every category I will give a Will Win (WW) pick. And for those I feel qualified to make a judgment, I will make a Closest Threat (CT) pick for who I think could upset for the win. So here goes:
       
      BEST PICTURE:
      WW: Lincoln
      SW & CT: Argo
       
      It has seemed ever since the race heated up in December, Lincoln was the one to beat. It still looks like the best bet to win. Nevertheless there are many thinking it could be Argo pulling the upset. I want it to win and feel it could upset but I'm still skeptical since Ben Affleck didn't get a Best Director nomination. Can you believe it? A Golden Globe win, a Directors Guild win, a BAFTA win but no Oscar nod? Even the unthinkable in Hollywood happens. It's not to say Argo's chances are done. But if Argo does win Best Picture, it will be the first film since Driving Miss Daisy to win with the director not nominated for Best Director. We'll see.
       
      BEST DIRECTOR:
      SW & WW: STEVEN SPIELBERG/Lincoln
      CT: ANG LEE/Life Of Pi
       
      It seems with the nomination snubs of Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow and Quentin Tarantino, it's Spielberg's for the taking. Spielberg would not become the first director to win Best Director three times. Frank Capra already beat him to it. However it's possible Spielberg might not win as the Academy might not want him to triple it and they'll give it to Ang Lee. Still anything can happen that night. Heck it's possible it could go to Michael Haneke. You never know.
       
      BEST ACTOR:
      SW & WW: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS/Lincoln
      CT: BRADLEY COOPER/Silver Linings Playbook
       
      Back when I first posted at Teen Stars Online, if you asked me if I ever thought an actor would ever win Best Actor three times, I'd say "Yes, Tom Hanks." Who would've thought Daniel Day-Lewis would be the one to most likely beat him to it in the history books? If you saw Lincoln for yourself, you'd know why. However history might not be made Oscar night. The Academy might not want Day-Lewis to get his hat trick and it could be one of the other four. That's why I think Cooper is the one who best could upset.
       
      BEST ACTRESS:
      WW: JENNIFER LAWRENCE/Silver Linings Playbook
      SW & CT: JESSICA CHASTAIN/Zero Dark Thirty
       
      This category has been notable for two things this year. First, this year set milestones in having its oldest ever nominee--Emannuelle Riva who will turn 86 on Oscar night-- and its youngest ever with 9 1/2 year-old Quyvenzhane Wallis. Second, it was the battle of Jennifer vs. Jessica. Both were deserving and both were buzzworthy. However Zero Dark Thirty has lost a lot of its Oscar juice after getting a paltry five nominations. Jennifer Lawrence's is still very active. Silver Linings Playbook became the fourteenth movie in Oscar history to earn nominations in all four acting categories and she's its best chance to win. The last movie to be nominated in all four acting categories and not win in one of them was 1950's Sunset Boulevard. Let's hope that bad luck doesn't repeat itself tomorrow night.
       
      BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
      SW: ALAN ARKIN/Argo
      WW: TOMMY LEE JONES/Lincoln
      CT: CHRISTOPH WALTZ/Django Unchained
       
      The most interesting thing about this category is that all five nominees have won the Oscar at least once already. This could be any of the five but I think Tommy Lee Jones has gotten the biggest acclaim for the scene-stealing Thaddeus Stevens. This film could have easily been Stevens' story and much as Lincoln's story. There's been some talk of Waltz upsetting but some are predicting the upset to come from Robert de Niro. I don't know. With Day-Lewis and Spielberg both poised to win a third Oscar, do you think they will want a third tripler in De Niro?
       
      BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
      SW & WW: ANNE HATHAWAY/Les Miserables
      CT: SALLY FIELD/Lincoln
       
      Who else saw Les Miserables? If you did, I guess I don't even have to explain why I think Anne would win. You yourself saw why.
       
      BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
      SW: MARK BOAL/Zero Dark Thirty
      WW: QUENTIN TARANTINO/Django Unchained
      CT: MICHAEL HANEKE/Amour
       
      This is a tight three-way race between Boal, Tarantino and Haneke. Tarantino won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, Boal won the Writers Guild but Haneke has been building on young buzz so it could go in his favor.
       
      BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
      SW & WW: CHRIS TERRIO/Argo
      CT: TONY KUSHNER/Lincoln
       
      Retelling history has to be a popular trend in this year's crop of Oscar contenders. Argo, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, it's something. With Affleck snubbed of a Best Director nomination, this is Argo's best chance to win in Oscar in one of the Top 8 categories to have a healthy chance at winning Best Picture and it looks very healthy.
       
      BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
      SW & WW: Wreck-It Ralph
      CT: Brave
       
      Brave may be the Disney/Pixar feature of the year but it doesn't stand alone at the top like The Incredibles, Ratatouille, Wall-E and Toy Story 3 just to name a few. Two other animated movies by Disney also posed a challenge: Frankenweenie and Wreck-It Ralph. I give Ralph the edge.
       
      BEST ART DIRECTION:
      WW: Life of Pi
      CT: Anna Karenina
       
      BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
      WW: ROGER DEAKINS/Skyfall
      SW & CT: CLAUDIO MIRANDA/Life Of Pi
       
      Miranda has won a stack of awards but Deakins has won the American Society of Cinematographers award: a guild award. He's been nominated many times before and never won. I think he has that advantage over Miranda for the win.
       
      BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
      WW: JACQUELINE DURRAN/Anna Karenina
      SW & CT: PACO DELGADO/Les Miserables
       
      BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
      WW: Searching For Sugar Man
      CT: The Gatekeepers
       
      Isn't it interesting to know that Rodriguez's records are finally charting in the US more than 40 years after they've been released? What took us all so long? The question is will they release Sugar Man as a single?
       
      BEST FILM EDITING:
      SW & WW: WILLIAM GOLDENBERG/Argo
      CT: WILLIAM GOLDENBERG & DYLAN TICHENOR/Zero Dark Thirty
       
      William Goldenberg sure looks like the editor of the year. Interesting how both favorites are in a Best Picture nominated movie whose director was amongst the biggest Best Director snubs. A win in this category could mean a Best Picture win. Let's keep our eyes peeled.
       
      BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM:
      WW: Amour - Austria
      CT: A Royal Affair - Denmark
       
      I've been mistaken before about winners in this category. What seems to be the surest of the sure wasn't. Pan's Labyrinth anyone? However it's hard to see anyone upsetting Amour since it's also a Best Picture nominee. A surprise could happen but it's unlikely.
       
      BEST MAKE-UP:
      WW: The Hobbit
      CT: Les Miserables
       
      BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
      SW & WW: MYCHAEL DANNA/Life Of Pi
      CT: JOHN WILLIAMS/Lincoln
       
      It's extremely common for John Williams to get nominated in this category but rare for him to win. He's only won five times. Nevertheless I feel it will go to Mychael Danna and rightly so. If you've seen Life Of Pi, you would have heard how the music was the perfect fit for the movie. Plus it was the most enchanting movie score of the year. Winner hands down.
       
      BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
      WW: 'Skyfall'/Skyfall
      CT: 'Suddenly'/Les Miserables
       
      Aren't you glad to see the Best Original Song category back to having five nominees? After having less for so many years and a measly two last year, glad to see it back in action. And what better song to bring back some of its juice than an Adele song? At a time when Adele is a phenomenon, I don't think we should be surprised to see her having the best chances of winning.
       
      BEST SOUND MIXING:
      WW: Les Miserables
      CT: Skyfall
       
      BEST SOUND EDITING:
      WW: Life Of Pi
      CT: Skyfall
       
      BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
      SW & WW: Life Of Pi
      CT: The Avengers
       
      Who would've thought that in a year of a lot of sci-fi action movies, the most renowned effects would come from an Ang Lee movie? Very deserving though. If you've seen Life of Pi, you'd know why.
       
      BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
      WW: Paperman
       
      BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT:
      WW: Buzkashi Boys
       
      BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
      WW: Innocente
       
      And there you have it. My predictions for this year's Oscars. Tune in Sunday night to find out who won. Also tune in to see is Seth MacFarlane does a good first-time job of hosting. Just as long as the animated character to give out an award isn't Peter Griffin.
       
    • February 23, 2013 12:56 PM EST
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      Looking at your poll results I was just wondering how the site voters pics would stack up against yours and now I have the answer.

    • February 23, 2013 12:57 PM EST
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      Excelent and I have been around here a few years but some of you guys go way back..wow Jeff-Jones, Jeffrey007, etc

      Awesome :)

       

       

    • February 23, 2013 3:28 PM EST
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      Can't argue with those selections one bit, I really believed that The Impossible should have been recognized with a nomination for best film.

    • February 24, 2013 12:17 PM EST
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      Nice picks once more, Ireally also think "Argo" could win that best pic nod and I would not be that upset if that happens.

    • March 13, 2013 12:46 AM EDT
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      I really dont get the love for Argo, not that it is not deserving but IMHO for eg. The Impossible was a better film.

    • March 13, 2013 1:21 PM EDT
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      Larceny, that is what it is that The Impossible was snubbed.

    • March 13, 2013 8:35 PM EDT
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      The Impossible does deserve better it is an outstanding movie with great performances by the actors, special note to young Tom Holland who carried the film and was snubbed.

      Chris Kross said:

      Larceny, that is what it is that The Impossible was snubbed.

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