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    • January 20, 2019 8:40 PM EST
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      My 2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

      It’s coming up again. That Tuesday morning when we will know which of the films and film efforts will get nominations from the Academy. We’ll see which films excelled above the rest and also which film company’s FYC ads paid off in this first stage. So without further ado, here are my predictions for the nominees of twenty categories of the 2018 Academy Awards as well as a Dark Horse (DH) pick or two for possible upsetters and a For Your Consideration (FYC) pick for one that doesn’t have a chance but should:

       

      BEST PICTURE

      • Black Panther
      • BlacKkKlansman
      • Bohemian Rhapsody
      • The Favourite
      • Green Book
      • If Beale Street Could Talk
      • Mary Poppins Returns
      • A Star Is Born
      • Roma
      • Vice

      DH1: A Quiet Place

      DH2: Crazy Rich Asians

      FYC: Eighth Grade

       

      This past year has been a year of frustration for the Academy. The last Oscars was the lowest-rated Oscars ever! What can I say? When you keep on giving Best Picture to films with low grosses, you risk having that happen. Back in August, there were some Academy revisions, including the addition of a category of Best Popular Film. The addition of that category created so much online flack, it was eliminated a week after it was announced. It may come back. Until then, we have the Best Picture category to work with.

       

      However this year, the fare looks better. Popular movies like Black Panther, A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody look to be shoe-ins for nomination. Besides superhero movies are long overdue for a Best Picture nominee. Deadpool was snubbed for 2016 and Wonder Woman was snubbed last year. Let’s hope they do things right with Black Panther this year.

       

      BEST DIRECTOR

      • BRADLEY COOPER/A Star Is Born
      • ALFONSO CUARON/Roma
      • PETER FARRELLY/ Green Book
      • SPIKE LEE/ BlacKkKlansman
      • ADAM MCKAY/ Vice

      DH1: YIORGOS LANTHIMOS/The Favourite

      DH2: BO BURNHAM/Eighth Grade

      FYC: RYAN COOGLER/Black Panther

       

      Interesting mix of directors who look poised to get nominated in this category. Also a wide variety of films too.

       

      BEST ACTOR

      • CHRISTIAN BALE/Vice
      • ETHAN HAWKE/First Reformed
      • RAMI MALEK/Bohemian Rhapsody
      • VIGGO MORTENSON/Green Book
      • JOHN DAVID WASHINGTON/BlacKkKlansman

      DH1: BRADLEY COOPER/A Star Is Born

      DH2: WILLEM DAFOE/At Eternity’s Gate

      FYC: RYAN GOSLING/First Man

       

      I went out on a limb and risked picking Ethan Hawke over Bradley Cooper in this category. Surprises do happen.

       

      BEST ACTRESS

      • EMILY BLUNT/Mary Poppins Returns
      • GLENN CLOSE/The Wife
      • OLIVIA COLMAN/The Favourite
      • LADY GAGA/A Star Is Born
      • MELISSA MCCARTHY/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

      DH1: NICOLE KIDMAN/Destroyer

      DH2: ELSIE FISHER/Eighth Grade

      FYC: YALITZA APARICIO/Roma

       

      This year’s Best Actress nominees seem pretty predictable, but anything can happen Tuesday morning.

       

      BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

      • MAHERSHALA ALI/Green Book
      • TIMOTHEE CHALAMET/Beautiful Boy
      • ADAM DRIVER/BlacKkKlansman
      • SAM ELLIOTT/A Star Is Born
      • RICHARD E. GRANT/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

      DH1: SAM ROCKWELL/Vice

      DH2: MICHAEL B. JORDAN/Black Panther

      FYC: HUGH GRANT/Paddington 2

       

      BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

      • AMY ADAMS/Vice
      • CLAIRE FOY/First Man
      • REGINA KING/If Beale Street Could Talk
      • EMMA STONE/The Favourite
      • RACHEL WEISZ/The Favourite

      DH1: MARGOT ROBBIE/Mary Queen Of Scots

      DH2: EMILY BLUNT/A Quiet Place

      FYC: NICOLE KIDMAN/Boy Erased

       

      Of all the acting categories, this is the most unpredictable for predicting nominees. Surprises have happened very often. I’m anticipating one or two.

       

      BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

      • BO BURNHAM/Eighth Grade
      • DEBORAH DAVIS and TONY MacNAMARA/The Favourite
      • BRIAN HAYES CURRIE, PETER FARRELLY and NICK VALLELONGA/Green Book
      • ALFONSO CUARON/Roma
      • ADAM MCKAY/Vice

      DH1: PAUL SCHRADER/First Reformed

      DH2: BRYAN WOODS, SCOTT BECK and JOHN KRASINSKI/A Quiet Place

       

      Some years, the original screenplays have the edge over the adapted screenplays. Other years, it’s the other way around. This year is one that leaves most undecided.

       

      BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

      • RYAN COOGLER and JOHN ROBERT COLE/Black Planther
      • CHARLIE WACHTEL, DAVID RABINOWITZ, KEVIN WILLMOTT and SPIKE LEE/BlacKkKlansman
      • NICOLE HOLOFCENER and JEFF WHITTY/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
      • BARRY JENKINS/If Beale Street Could Talk
      • ERIC ROTH, BRADLEY COOPER and BILL FETTERS/A Star Is Born

      DH1: JOSH SINGER/First Man

      DH2: ARMANDO IANNUCCI, DAVID SCHNEIDER and IAN MARTIN/The Death Of Stalin

       

      One thing about superhero movies in the 21st Century is that it’s not just about the special effects. It’s also a good story that makes a top-notch superhero movie. The nomination for the Black Panther script is well-deserved.

       

      BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

      • The Incredibles 2
      • Isle Of Dogs
      • Mirai
      • Ruben Brandt, Collector
      • SpiderMan: Into The Spider-Verse

      DH1: Ralph Breaks The Internet

      DH2: Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch

       

      One thing I’ve noticed in this category is that the animator’s branch of the Academy will have a mix of popular fare and indie fare. That’s why I put two popular movies as the Dark Horses.

       

      BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

      • ALFONSO CUARON/Roma
      • MATTHEW LIBATIQUE/A Star Is Born
      • RACHEL MORRISON/Black Panther
      • ROBBIE RYAN/ The Favourite
      • LINUS SANDGREN/First Man

      DH1: JAMES LAXTON/ If Beale Street Could Talk

      DH2: LUKASZ ZAL/ Cold War

       

      BEST COSTUME DESIGN

      • ALEXANDRA BYRNE/Mary Queen Of Scots
      • RUTH E. CARTER/Black Panther
      • JULIAN DAY/Bohemian Rhapsody
      • SANDY POWELL /The Favourite
      • SANDY POWELL/Mary Poppins Returns

      DH1: ERIN BENACH/ A Star Is Born

      DH2: MARY E. VOGT/Crazy Rich Asians

       

      Isn't it something that actors can have only one nomination per category but all others can acquire two? What can I say? Sandy Powell is the modern-day Edith Head.

       

      BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

      • Crime and Punishment
      • Free Solo
      • RBG
      • Three Identical Strangers
      • Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

      DH: Hale County, This Morning This Evening

       

      BEST FILM EDITING

      • BARRY ALEXANDER BROWN/BlacKkKlansman
      • ALFONSO CUARON and ADAM GOUGH/Roma
      • JAY CASSIDY/A Star Is Born
      • HANK CORWIN/Vice
      • YORGOS MAVROPSARIDIS/The Favourite

      DH1: PATRICK DON VITO/Green Book

      DH2: TOM CROSS/First Man

      FYC: DEBBIE BERMAN and MICHAEL SHAWVER/Black Panther

       

      I know it’s six weeks away, but I’m tempted to assume right now that Alfonso Cuaron will be the Man Of The Night on Oscar Night.

       

      BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

      • Burning – South Korea
      • Cold War – Poland
      • The Guilty – Denmark
      • Roma – Mexico
      • Shoplifters – Japan

      DH1: Never Look Away – Germany

      DH2: Capernaum – Lebanon

       

      Roma seems like a shoe-in, but I’ve seen favorites that were snubbed in this category. I am anticipating Roma to be nominated, but I won’t be surprised if it doesn’t get it due to some red tape in the Academy.

      Also keep your eyes peeled for The Guilty. There are plans for an American-made version of the film to be made with Jake Gyllenhaal starring as the lead.

       

      BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

      • Black Panther
      • The Favourite
      • Vice

      DH: Mary Queen Of Scots

       

      BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

      • NICHOLAS BRITTELL/If Beale Street Could Talk
      • ALEXANDRE DESPLAT/Isle Of Dogs
      • LUDWIG GORANSON/Black Panther
      • JUSTIN HURWITZ/First Man
      • MARC SHAIMAN/Mary Poppins Returns

      DH1: MARCO BELTRAMI/A Quiet Place

      DH2: KRIS BOWERS/Green Book

       

      BEST ORIGINAL SONG

      • “All The Stars”/ Black Panther
      • “I’ll Fight”/ RBG
      • “Revelation”/ Boy Erased
      • “Shallow”/ A Star Is Born
      • “Trip A Little Light Fantastic”/ Mary Poppins Returns

      DH1: “Girl In The Movies”/ Dumplin’

      DH2: “The Place Where Lost Things Go”/ Mary Poppins Returns

       

      BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

      • HANNAH BEACHLER/Black Panther
      • NELSON COATES/Crazy Rich Asians
      • FIONA CROMBIE/The Favourite
      • NATHAN CROWLEY/First Man
      • JOHN MYHRE/Mary Poppins Returns

      DH1: STUART CRAIG/Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald

      DH2: EUGENIO CABALLERO/Roma

       

      BEST SOUND MIXING

      • Black Panther
      • Bohemian Rhapsody
      • First Man
      • A Star Is Born
      • A Quiet Place

      DH: Mission Impossible – Fallout

       

      BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

      • Avengers: Infinity War
      • Black Panther
      • Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald
      • Ready Player One
      • Solo: A Star Wars Story

      DH1: Mary Poppins Returns

      DH2: Christopher Robin

       

      How did the effects of Black Panther get snubbed from a Visual Effects Society Award (the VFX Guild)? Politics?

       

      So there are my predictions for the nominees of twenty of the 24 Academy Award categories. I may or may not wake up bright and early to see the results, but I’ll have lots to talk about on Tuesday morning.

      This post was edited by OmahaTrevor85 at January 23, 2019 12:48 AM EST
    • January 20, 2019 10:46 PM EST
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      Untitled title

      Yes very interesting you sure know your movies.

    • January 21, 2019 1:02 PM EST
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      Awesome, just wow! have you seen all those movies?

    • January 21, 2019 3:35 PM EST
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      I am hoping A Quiet Place get nominated because it is a good movie and also I am sure it is a shoo-in but you never know also hoping Roma get a nomination.

    • January 22, 2019 10:42 AM EST
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      Very good predictions but now that the noms are out I see some glaring snubs, happy to see Lady Gaga got her nod but where is Ryan Coogler director nod and Bradley Coopers? I would expect Emily Blunt to be honored also. On the other hand again good to see Spike Lee in the list.

      Yes, Cooper has 4 other nods but I would say that director was one I expected as with Coogler some glaring snubs and add John David Washington to my list of snubs.

      Full List of Nominations

    • January 22, 2019 9:49 PM EST
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      I am so happy Lady Gaga was nominated that is all I wanted. cx

    • January 22, 2019 11:43 PM EST
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      Lady GaGa baby. :P I never thought I would like it but A Star is Born was awesome.

    • January 23, 2019 12:48 AM EST
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      Another bang on list Trevor but again we are blindsided by some snubs, Baumgartner I mean filmGuy, sorry Baumgartner is your FTS handle, your list of snubs exactly fits with mine. Still can't feel too bad for Bradley Cooper with 4 other nods but I agree him not getting a director nod is a snub.

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