Those of you concerned about my last post of limiting my Oscar enthusiasm this year, did you think I’d give up on predictions? Guess again. My annual Oscar nomination predictions are here for the thirteenth straight year! I gave my main predictions, predicted a Dark Horse (DH) or two that could upset, and gave a For Your Consideration (FYC) pick for one that doesn’t have much of a chance for a nomination but deserves one. So without further ado--assuming there are five nominees for each category and ten for Best Picture-- here are my nomination predictions for this year:
BEST PICTURE:
-American Hustle
-Blue Jasmine
-Captain Phillips
-Dallas Buyers Club
-Gravity
-Nebraska
-Philomena
-Saving Mr. Banks
-12 Years A Slave
-The Wolf Of Wall Street
DH1: Inside Llewyn Davis
DH2: Her
FYC: Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Assuming there are ten nominees in this category, those are my picks. Easy to choose the first eight that come to mind. Difficult to predict the last two. That’s predictions for you.
BEST DIRECTOR:
-ALFONSO CUARON/Gravity
-PAUL GREENGRASS/Captain Phillips
-SPIKE JONZE/Her
-STEVE MCQUEEN/12 Years a Slave
-DAVID O. RUSSELL/American Hustle
DH1: MARTIN SCORSESE/ The Wolf Of Wall Street
DH2: ALEXANDER PAYNE/Nebraska
I don’t know if it’s because he’s an Omahan like me but I feel Alexander Payne’s efforts were underappreciated. I feel he deserves the nomination.
BEST ACTOR:
-BRUCE DERN/Nebraska
-CHIWETEL EJIOFOR/12 Years a Slave
-TOM HANKS/Captain Phillips
-MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY/Dallas Buyers Club
-ROBERT REDFORD/All Is Lost
DH1: LEONARDO DICAPRIO/The Wolf of Wall Street
DH2: CHRISTIAN BALE/American Hustle
FYC: FOREST WHITAKER/Lee Daniels’ The Butler
I don’t know if it’s because of its summer release but I think most chances for The Butler to get nominations is gone.
BEST ACTRESS:
-AMY ADAMS/American Hustle
-CATE BLANCHETT/Blue Jasmine
-SANDRA BULLOCK/Gravity
-JUDI DENCH/Philomena
-EMMA THOMPSON/Saving Mr. Banks
DH: MERYL STREEP/August: Osage County
FYC: ADELE EXARCHOPOULOS/Blue Is The Warmest Color
I felt Adele is deserving but I hope to heck you young ones don’t see this movie until you’re 18!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
-BARKHAD ABDI/Captain Phillips
-DANIEL BRÜHL/Rush
-MICHAEL FASSBENDER/12 Years a Slave
-WILL FORTE/Nebraska
-JARED LETO/Dallas Buyers Club
DH1: JAMES GANDOLFINI/Enough Said
DH2:-BRADLEY COOPER/American Hustle
Somehow I have the feeling James Gandolfini will get a posthumous nomination here. He already has a SAG nomination for this role.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
-Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine
-Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle
-Lupita Nyong’o/12 Years a Slave
-Julia Roberts/August: Osage County
-June Squibb/Nebraska
DH1: Oprah Winfrey/Lee Daniels’ The Butler
FYC: OCTAVIA SPENCER/Fruitvale Station
The first four were easy to predict. The question was the fifth: Oprah or Sally Hawkins. I think it will go to Hawkins since she was never nominated before. For those who don’t know, Oprah got her nomination in 1985’s Spielberg-directed The Color Purple. That led her getting a deal to do a talk show and the rest is history.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
-WOODY ALLEN/Blue Jasmine
-ALFONZO& JONAS CUARON/Gravity
-SPIKE JONZE/Her
-BOB NELSON/Nebraska
-ERIC WARREN SINGER AND DAVID O. RUSSELL/American Hustle
DH1: JOEL AND ETHAN COEN/Inside Llewyn Davis
DH2: CRAIG BORTEN AND MELISSA WALLACK/Dallas Buyers Club
This category is too tough to call. So many great original screenplays this year with seven having a very good chance of nomination. Problem is only room for five. Hate to find out who the odd two out are.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
-JULIE DELPY, ETHAN HAWKE & RICHARD LINKLATER/Before Midnight
-JEFF POPE AND STEVE COOGAN/Philomena
-BILLY RAY/Captain Phillips
-JOHN RIDLEY/12 Years A Slave
-TERRENCE WINTER/The Wolf Of Wall Street
DH1: TRACY LETTS/August: Osage County
FYC: ABDELLATIF KECHICHE & GHALIA LACROIX/Blue Is The Warmest Color
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
-The Croods
-Despicable Me 2
-Frozen
-Monsters University
-The Wind Rises
DH: Epic
You have to admit this was a pretty lackluster year in terms of animation. Sure we were charmed by monsters and minions but nothing fresh or worthy of being called a breakthrough. Did the staff from Pixar go on a long vacation?
BEST ART DIRECTION:
-American Hustle
-Gravity
-The Great Gatsby
-The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
-12 Years A Slave
DH: Saving Mr. Banks
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
-SEAN BOBBITT/12 Years A Slave
-ROGER DEAKINS/Prisoners
-BRUNO DELBONNEL /Inside Llewyn Davis
-EMMANUEL LUBEZKI /Gravity
-PHEDON PAPAMICHAEL /Nebraska
DH: BARRY ACKROYD/Captain Phillips
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
-BOB BUCK, ANN MASKREY AND RICHARD TAYLOR/The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
-GARY JONES/Oz: The Great and Powerful
-PATRICIA NORRIS/12 Years A Slave
-CATHERINE MARTIN/The Great Gatsby
-MICHAEL WILKINSON/American Hustle
DH1: DANIEL ORLANDI/Saving Mr. Banks
DH2: TRISH SUMMERVILLE/The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
-The Act Of Killing
-Blackfish
-P**** Riot: A Punk's Prayer
-Stories We Tell
-20 Feet From Stardom
DH1: Tim's Vermeer
DH2: The Square
Imagine if P**** Riot did get nominated. Can you imagine how uncomfortable the star that has to read the nominees will get once they say it?
BEST FILM EDITING:
-Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers/American Hustle
-Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger/Gravity
-Christopher Rouse/Captain Phillips
-Thelma Schoonmaker/The Wolf Of Wall Street
-Joe Walker/12 Years A Slave
DH1: Kevin Tent/Nebraska
DH2: Mark Livolski/Saving Mr. Banks
This is always a dilemma. To pick nominees in terms of editing acclaim or because their film is a top runner for Best Picture. Well, those are my picks for this year
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
-The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
-The Hunt (Denmark)
-Two Lives (Germany)
-The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
-The Great Beauty (Italy)
DH: The Notebook (Hungary)
Sometimes I think this is a lock that The Great Beauty will win. It seems to have no competition here. It even beat out Blue Is The Warmest Color for Best Picture at the European Film Awards.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
-CRAIG ARMSTRONG/The Great Gatsby
-ALEX EBERT/All Is Lost
-STEVEN PRICE/Gravity
-JOHN WILLIAMS/The Book Thief
-HANS ZIMMER/12 Years A Slave
DH1: WILLIAM BUTLER & OWEN PALLETT/Her
DH2: THOMAS NEWMAN/Saving Mr. Banks
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
-”Atlas”/The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
-”Happy”/Despicable Me 2
-”Let It Go”/Frozen
-”Ordinary Love”/ Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom
-”Young And Beautiful”/ The Great Gatsby
DH1: "Sweeter Than Fiction"/ One Chance
DH2: “I See Fire”/ The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
The question is not just what songs will be nominated but how many nominees will be. Last year was good, there were five. I’m hoping again this year.
BEST SOUND MIXING:
-Captain Phillips
-Gravity
-Iron Man 3
-Lone Survivor
-Rush
BEST SOUND EDITING:
-Captain Phillips
-Gravity
-Iron Man 3
-Oz Great and Powerful
-Star Trek Into Darkness
I had no plans in making predictions in this category until Sasha at the AwardsDaily website made it one for the nominations predictions contest. Sasha, Sasha, Sasha!
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
-Gravity
-The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
-Iron Man 3
-Pacific Rim
-Star Trek Into Darkness
And those are my predictions for the Oscar nominees for this year. The nominees will be announced tomorrow morning. How many did I get right? How many did I muss? Did one of my FYC picks actually get nominated? I’ll see tomorrow.