It never fails. With each Oscar season comes my set of predictions. Yep, even after 15 years, I’m still going strong. So with Tuesday being the day of nominations, I decided to have a go at predicting the nominees. Once again, I predict the five, or whatever appropriate number, that I most believe will be nominated. Some categories may have an additional dark horse (DH) prediction or two for potential upsetters to my main picks as well as a possible For Your Consideration (FYC) pick for efforts that most deserve the nomination but have lousy chances. So here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
-Arrival
-Fences
-Hacksaw Ridge
-Hell Or High Water
-Hidden Figures
-La La Land
-Lion
-Manchester By The Sea
-Moonlight
-Sully
DH1: Loving
DH2: Deadpool
DH3: Elle
FYC: Silence
There most likely won’t be ten Best Picture nominees but I decided to predict ten in case. Who would’ve thought that Deadpool would have a chance for Best Picture? After it received a Producers Guild nomination, it is a possibility.
BEST DIRECTOR
-DAMIEN CHAZELLE/La La Land
-MEL GIBSON/Hacksaw Ridge
-BARRY JENKINS/Moonlight
-KENNETH LONERGAN/Manchester By The Sea
-DENIS VILLENEUVE/Arrival
DH1: GARTH DAVIS/Lion
DH2: DENZEL WASHINGTON/Fences
FYC: MARTIN SCORSESE/Silence
Remember the big #OscarsSoWhite controversy that’s been happening for the past two years? This year it looks like a lot more minorities have better chances at getting nominated. In fact this year could be the first year two black directors—Denzel Washington and Barry Jenkins—get nominated.
BEST ACTOR
-CASEY AFFLECK/Manchester By The Sea
-ANDREW GARFIELD/Hacksaw Ridge
-RYAN GOSLING/La La Land
-VIGGO MORTENSON/Captain Fantastic
- DENZEL WASHINGTON/Fences
DH1: TOM HANKS/Sully
DH2: JOEL EDGERTON/Loving
It should come as no surprise that Ryan Gosling is the only former mouseketeer to ever be nominated for an Oscar: in 2006 for Half Nelson.
BEST ACTRESS
-AMY ADAMS/Arrival
-ISABELLE HUPPERT/Elle
-NATALIE PORTMAN/Jackie
-EMMA STONE/La La Land
-MERYL STREEP/Florence Foster Jenkins
DH1: EMILY BLUNT/The Girl On The Train
DH2: RUTH NEGGA/Loving
FYC: ANNETTE BENING/20th Century Women
Is there any stopping Meryl Streep? She looks poised to earn nomination #20.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
-MAHERSHALA ALI/Moonlight
-JEFF BRIDGES/Hell Or High Water
-HUGH GRANT/Florence Foster Jenkins
-DEV PATEL/Lion
-AARON TAYLOR-JOHNSON/Nocturnal Animals
DH1: LUCAS HEDGES/Manchester By The Sea
DH2: MICHAEL SHANNON/Nocturnal Animals
FYC: ISSEI OGATA/Silence
One of the problems about the recent #OscarsSoWhite row is that it made the race issue look like it’s only between black and white. It’s other races too. In fact Dev Patel looks poised to be the first Asian actor in ten years to be nominated and the first actor of South Asian descent since Ben Kingsley.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
-VIOLA DAVIS/Fences
-NAOMIE HARRIS/Moonlight
-NICOLE KIDMAN/Lion
-OCTAVIA SPENCER/Hidden Figures
-MICHELLE WILLIAMS/Manchester By The Sea
DH1: JANELLE MONAE/Hidden Figures
DH2: GRETA GERWIG/20th Century Women
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
-DAMIEN CHAZELLE/La La Land
-BARRY JENKINS and TERELL ALVIN McCRANEY/Moonlight
-KENNETH LONERGAN/Manchester By The Sea
-JEFF NICHOLS/Loving
-TAYLOR SHERIDAN/Hell Or High Water
DH1: PAUL LAVERTY/I, Daniel Blake
DH2: MIKE MILLS/20th Century Women
FYC: YORGOS LANTHIMOS and EFYHIMIS FILIPOU/The Lobster
Each year it’s an interesting look to see which year’s scripts had the most muscle? Original or Adapted? This year looks like it’s the Originals’ year.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
-LUKE DAVIES/Lion
-TOM FORD/Nocturnal Animals
-ERIC HEISSERER/Arrival
-ALLISON SCHROEDER and THEODORE MELFI/Hidden Figures
-AUGUST WILSON/Fences
DH1: JAY COCKS and MARTIN SCORSESE/Silence
DH2: TODD KOMARNICKI/Sully
FYC: RHETT REESE and TOM WERNICK/Deadpool
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
-Kubo And The Two Strings
-Moana
-My Life As a Zucchini
-The Red Turtle
-Zootopia
DH1: Finding Dory
DH2: Miss Hokusai
This category has often been the case where movies that were sure shots for nominations-- The Peanuts Movie last year and The Lego Movie the year before – were actually snubbed in favor of independent fare. We’ll see what big favs get snubbed out this year.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
-GREG FRASER/Lion
-JAMES LAXTON/Moonlight
-SEAMUS McGARVEY/Nocturnal Animals
-LINUS SANDGREN/La La Land
-BRADFORD YOUNG/Arrival
DH: RODRIGO PRIETO/Silence
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- COLLEEN ATWOOD/Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
-MARION BOYCE and MARGOT WILSON/The Dressmaker
-CONSOLATA BOYLE/Florence Foster Jenkins
-MADELINE FONTAINE/Jackie
-MARY ZOPHRES/La La Land
DH1: MARY ZOPHRES/Hail Caesar!
DH2: EIMER NI MHAOLDOMHNAIGH/Love & Friendship
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
-The Eagle Huntress
-Life, Animated
-OJ: Made In America
-13th
-Tower
DH: Weiner
BEST FILM EDITING
-TOM CROSS/La La Land
-JOHN GILBERT/Hacksaw Ridge
-JENNIFER LAME/Manchester By The Sea
-NAT SANDERS and JOI McMILLON/Moonlight
-JOE WALKER/Arrival
DH1: JAKE ROBERTS/Hell Or High Water
DH2: JULIAN CLARKE/Deadpool
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- It's Only The End Of The World (Canada)
-A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
-The Salesman (Iran)
-Tanna (Australia)
-Toni Erdmann (Germany)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
-NICHOLAS BRITWELL/Moonlight
-JUSTIN HURWITZ/La La Land
-JOHANN JOHANSON/Arrival
- DUSTIN O'HALLORAN and HAUSCHKA/Lion
-JOHN WILLIAMS/The BFG
DH1: HANS ZIMMER, PHARREL WILLIAMS and BENJAMIN WALFISCH/Hidden Figures
DH2: ABEL KORZENIOWSKI/Nocturnal Animals
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
-‘Can’t Stop The Feeling’/Trolls
-‘City Of Stars’/La La Land
-‘Heathens’/Suicide Squad
-‘How Far I’ll Go’/Moana
-‘Try Everything’/Zootopia
DH1: ‘Faith’/Sing
DH2: ‘Just Like Fire’/Alice Through Looking Glass
FYC: 'The Great Beyond'/Sausage Party
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
- Hail Caesar!
-Jackie
-Hacksaw Ridge
-La La Land
DH1: Arrival
DH2: Rogue One
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
-Captain America: Civil War
-Doctor Strange
-Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
-The Jungle Book
-Rogue One
DH: Arrival
And there you go. My predictions for this year’s Oscar nominees. Of course I won’t predict for every category, like the short movies. Just the main ones and the technical ones I know best. We’ll see how I did Tuesday morning.
I was surprised of the snubs of Amy Adams and Hugh Grant. Finding Dory was also a surprise too.
Colton said:
@OmahaTrevor85 I would like to know what was the most surprising snubb for you out of the nominations.
Your opinion is important as you seem to know your stuff.